Lionel Levine invented a new hat puzzle.
The sultan decides to torture his hundred wise men again. He has an unlimited supply of red and blue hats. Tomorrow he will pile an infinite, randomly-colored sequence of hats on each wise man’s head. Each wise man will be able to see the colors of everyone else’s hats, but will not be able to see the colors of his own hats. The wise men are not allowed to pass any information to each other.
At the sultan’s signal each has to write a natural number. The sultan will then check the color of the hat that corresponds to that number in the pile of hats. For example, if the wise man writes down “four,” the sultan will check the color of the fourth hat in that man’s pile. If any of the numbers correspond to a red hat, all the wise men will have their heads chopped off along with their hats. The numbers must correspond to blue hats. What should be their strategy to maximize their chance of survival?
Suppose each wise man writes “one.” The first hat in each pile is blue with a probability of one-half. Hence, they will survive as a group with a probability of 1 over 2100. Wise men are so wise that they can do much better than that. Can you figure it out?
Inspired by Lionel, I decided to suggest the following variation:
This time the sultan puts two hats randomly on each wise man’s head. Each wise man will see the colors of other people’s hats, but not the colors of his own. The men are not allowed to pass any info to each other. At the sultan’s signal each has to write the number of blue hats on his head. If they are all correct, all of them survive. If at least one of them is wrong, all of them die. What should be their strategy to maximize their chance of survival?
Suppose there is only one wise man. It is clear that he should write that he has exactly one blue hat. He survives with the probability of one-half. Suppose now that there are two wise men. Each of them can write “one.” With this strategy, they will survive with a probability of 1/4. Can they do better than that? What can you suggest if, instead of two, there is any number of wise men?Share: