I am trying to make a point that, mathematically, the Sleeping Beauty problem is resolved, and the Wikipedia article about it should stop assuming that there is an ongoing debate.
The Sleeping Beauty problem. Sleeping Beauty participates in the following experiment. On Sunday, she is put to sleep, and a fair coin is flipped. Regardless of the result of the coin flip, she is awakened on Monday and asked whether she thinks the coin was heads or tails. Regardless of her answer, if the coin was heads, the experiment ends. However, if the coin was tails, she is put back to sleep with her memory erased and awakened again on Tuesday and asked the same question. In this case, the experiment stops on Tuesday. She knows the protocol. She is awakened one morning. From her point of view, what is the probability that the coin was heads?
Here is the solution. If it is Monday, then the probability that the coin is heads is one half. So the probability of Monday/heads is the same as Monday/tails. If the coin is tails, Sleeping Beauty can’t distinguish between Monday and Tuesday. So the probability of Monday/tails is the same as Tuesday/tails. Thus, the three cases Monday/heads, Monday/tails, and Tuesday/tails are equally probable. It follows that when she is awakened, the probability of heads is one third.
However, there are still people — called halfers — who think that the probability of heads is one half.
But suppose we ask a different question.
Different question. She is awakened one morning. From her point of view, what is the probability that the day is Tuesday?
As I explained before, when she is awakened, the probability of it being Tuesday is one third. Let us calculate what the halfers think. Suppose they think that the probability of the day being Tuesday is x, then the probability of Monday is 1 − x. Let’s calculate the probability of the coin being heads from here. The probability of heads, if today is Tuesday, is zero. The probability of heads, if today is Monday, is 1/2. Therefore, the probability of heads equals 0 · x + (1 − x)/2 = (1 − x)/2. In halfers’ view, the resulting calculation equals 1/2. In other words, (1 − x)/2 = 1/2. It follows that x is zero. Doesn’t make much sense that the probability of the day being Tuesday is zero, does it?
Halfers are wrong. Wikipedia should update the article.Share: